One in 12k of people may have my skills. How did I arrive at this numer? Numbers get attention, and I added one to the 'In Numbers' section, above, for fun. The number claims I've got a one in 12k expertise.
How did I get that number?
Though I did it in fun, I think it's actually not that far out. So how did I come up with the statistic?
This is not a serious analysis. It's a fun exercise relying on a bit of logic, and even less data. Here's how I worked it out.
A path less travelled
66.56m ÷ (((109 x 2) x 25) - (𝑥 + 𝑥)) = 12,229.36
- 66.65m[a]Population of the UK in 2019
- 109[b][c][d]Architectural practices in the UK employ more than 31 peopleThese are architectural studios big enough to work on unusually large and complex projects. This is where my career began, exposed to considerable complexity. 109 represents 0.002% of private business in the UK[c]. That puts my experience on a path less travelled from day one of my career.
- x 2People per company employed in a similar role where I beganThe role was developing and managing a team helping customers make sense of the job‑to‑do, on complex projects (Competitive bids worth between £92m and £164m valued at 2021 rates).
- x 25Years of people being hired to do the same thingOver a career of 25 years, say, there will be increasing numbers involved in a similar activity, for similar businesses. They'll carry their experience with them to other jobs, as I have. So assuming a general growth in all industries, it feels reasonable to ignore reduction (via retirement, for example). I sound like I've taken this exercise seriously, don't I.
- 5,450((109 x 2) x 25) = 5,450 people with a similar backgroundThis is the number of people working in the UK, today, who potentially have a background similar to mine. It's a small population by any measure.
- -𝑥[e]! Not all of them will have the same education as meIt's possible, even probable, that most of the 5k, historically, are from project management backgrounds, rather than product design (I suspect this is changing). My training was Design Thinking focussed, before Design Thinking was a thing – so I'm unusual among contemporaries in this calculation.
- -𝑥[e]! Not all 5k will have consultancy experienceThe word 'consultant' is a fraught one. It's often attached to sales jobs – I've been looking at jobs with 'consultant' in the title. So it's possible that a large percentage of the 5k would claim to have consultancy experience. Their meaning would be different to mine, though.
- = 1:12k
Conclusion: one in 12,229.36 people in the UK (at most) may have similar expertise to me. Many are likely to be project management focused however, and there's possibly very few who will have Design Thinking skills.
